Ann's NOTE: This study will not be appropriate in the U.S. where we have a multicultural/multiracial population. The Gail model has already proven incorrect with respect to African American women, younger women and now this study says older women. [1042] GAIL scores in women with a breast complaint: predictive of malignancy except in the over 70 population. Paun B, George RL, Walker GR, Henson J, Thain D, Wintonic A, Lloyd SC, Warner J, Isotalo PA.. Queens University, Kingston, ON, Canada; Hotel Dieu Hospital, Kingston, ON, Canada; Kingston, ON, Canada Introduction: The Gail model is a widely used assessment tool. On the basis of known risk factors it estimates an individuals 5 year and lifetime likelihood of developing breast cancer. We hypothesized the same tool may be of value in assessing new referrals with a breast complaint for their present risk of harbouring breast cancer. Methods: New surgical referrals to a Breast Assessment Program completed a breast health form, assisted by a program nurse. Forms included demographic and general health data. Age, number of children, age at menarche and first live birth, detailed family history, hormonal use, menopausal status, medications and previous breast history and biopsies were all collected. Gail scores were calculated and patients were followed to the completion of their investigations and determined to have benign or malignant disease. All cancers were confirmed by biopsy. Results: Over an 18-month period, data was collected and investigations completed on 647 consecutive women; 316 were found to have benign disease, 17 DCIS and 309 invasive cancer. Five-year Gail scores were consistently higher for all women with breast cancer (2.0 vs 1.4, p0.001), but absolute scores were most discriminating in postmenopausal women (2.5 vs 1.9, p0.001) and in particular the 50-60 year age group (2.4 vs 1.6, p0.01). For women over 70, the values were non-discriminating with cancer patients scoring lower than those found to have benign disease (2.2 vs 2.5). The over 70 population was less likely to have a family history, which may confound the Gail results in this group. Conclusion: While the Gail model was a useful adjunct in the risk assessment of most women with a breast complaint. It was an ineffective discriminator in women over age 70, who had a high incidence of breast cancer, but a low probability of affected family members. Wednesday, December 8, 2004 4:30 PM Poster Session: Prognosis and Response Predictions: Predictive Factors (4:30 PM-7:00 PM) Remember we are NOT Doctors and have NO medical training. This site is like an Encylopedia - there are many pages, many links on many topics. Support our work with any size DONATION - see left side of any page - for how to donate. You can help raise awareness of CAM.